This mathematical model was developed in the 19th century by the French mathematician and physicist Poisson. According to a special algorithm, it can be used to calculate the probabilities of outcomes and predict the outcome of matches. This method allows us to determine the strength of the clubs' offence and defence, on the basis of which the probability of a goal being scored by one team and the probability of a goal being scored by the other team are calculated. This mathematical model allows you to find the most probable score of a match on an online betting site and place a bet

The Poisson distribution

The Poisson distribution works by dividing the odds of a team's performance by predicting the outcome of that team's future match, based on league and field statistics. The stats of a league in which the teams in question play (total home and away goals) as well as the home and away goals of those teams, are used to calculate the strength of the opposing offensive and defensive lines. After that it is necessary to draw the individual totals for each team. After getting these values by means of the online calculator one can calculate the percentage probability of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or more goals of each of the teams in the match.

Use in betting

Poisson's model is most widely used in low-scoring sports: mainly football, but also hockey, futsal and some other disciplines with an average match total of 3-7.
Poisson's mathematical model allows to calculate a number of matches parameters at once: Individual totals of playing teams; Most probable score of the match (it is possible to bet on 2-3 final scores of the game based on obtained probabilities); Total of the match; Draw a line on sports event.


The Poisson distribution gives an insight into how bookmakers in Pakistan compile a line. However, this calculation is based only on statistics, but does not take into account the human factor, various kinds of force majeure. For example, the model does not take into account many different factors such as the state of the teams on match day, their psychological state, recent results, the location of the game, the weather, the authority of the coach in the team and the strength of his position with the management, etc. Random events that can strongly influence the result are not taken into account in the Poisson distribution. This method of determining a probable Poisson score gives no guarantee that the calculated individual totals will pass, and the final score of the match will be one of those 2-3 variants that turned out to be the most probable from the calculation. This distribution is just an additional tool for the player, another opportunity to find valuation odds in the line.