Skill and Luck

As in other spheres where a person seeks financial gain, the bettor must devote time and effort to developing his skills, in this case, the maximum accuracy of prediction. Often, however, the player does not realize that a huge number of people are engaged in the development of this skill at the same time with him.

There are times when competition inspires people, but it is important to understand the following: the more developed a player's skill in the betting market is, the less a player's skill affects his or her results. At the same time, luck begins to have a more significant impact on results.

There is a so-called "skill paradox" that undoubtedly applies to sports betting bookmaker Parimatch and can help us understand why long term success in this field is so difficult. In a nutshell, the skill paradox divides the idea of skill into two dimensions - absolute skill and relative skill. A player may have high level absolute skill, but as the difference between the highest and average skill levels of betting market participants decreases, it becomes increasingly difficult for a player to use skill as an advantage. The "magnitude" of a player's luck does not change, but luck begins to play a more pronounced role in breaking down the significantly reduced boundaries between skill levels.

The idea of the skill paradox is relatively easy to understand, but recognizing it and accepting its truth presents a very special challenge. Betting without considering the influence of luck on the outcome of events is very difficult and probably even dangerous. At the same time, a lucky person in the lottery, for example, may well become a loser in betting.

Psychological concepts

There is another difficulty in the betting process, and that is the difficulty in understanding the impact that psychology has on the decision-making process and perception of event outcomes. Betting items, timing, betting sizes, and more are affected by a wide variety of psychology and preconceived notions. In order to earn a steady income from betting, a player must be aware of how psychology can influence their actions during this process.

Many of us are familiar with some of the psychological concepts associated with betting, such as "player error" and not understanding basic probability principles, the illusion of control and underestimating the role of luck, fear of loss and a tendency to prefer loss avoidance to making a commensurate profit.

In fact, the list of concepts associated with influencing betting behavior is much longer. It also includes misjudging probability (bias in evaluating underdogs and favorites), errors in processing information (tendency to validate one's point of view and the anchoring effect), and even distorting memories of past events (tendency to evaluate probability by the existence of examples and the hindsight knowledge effect). As you can see, each bettor's obstacles to achieving his or her goal here are numerous.

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